Heat Pump vs Furnace: what will heating cost you?
Most heat pump cost calculators use national averages. This one uses the electricity price of your own utility (EIA 2025), your state's natural gas price (2025), heating oil and propane prices from the 2025/26 winter, and the 1991–2020 monthly temperatures of the NOAA weather station nearest your ZIP code. The heat pump's efficiency is calculated month by month, so cold months count as much as they should.
What heating costs in different states
Example: 2,000 sq ft home with average insulation, high-efficiency heat pump (HSPF2 ~8.5) against a 92% gas furnace, 84% oil boiler and 92% propane furnace. Climate from a typical weather station in each state, statewide average prices. Your own result can differ a lot, so use the calculator above.
| State | Heating degree days | Heat pump SCOP | Heat pump | Gas | Propane | Oil |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 8,305 | 2.2 | $2,003 | $1,101 | $2,218 | $2,983 |
| Illinois | 5,770 | 2.5 | $1,373 | $784 | $1,505 | $2,292 |
| Pennsylvania | 5,800 | 2.5 | $1,494 | $1,053 | $2,329 | $2,142 |
| New York | 6,660 | 2.5 | $2,383 | $1,414 | $3,217 | $2,831 |
| Massachusetts | 6,216 | 2.5 | $2,536 | $1,881 | $2,905 | $2,537 |
| Georgia | 2,531 | 3.1 | $407 | $624 | $1,067 | $1,005 |
| Texas | 2,104 | 3.2 | $340 | $493 | $847 | $836 |
| Florida | 501 | 3.6 | $71 | $154 | $320 | $199 |
| Washington | 5,357 | 2.7 | $881 | $1,140 | $1,872 | $2,128 |
| Colorado | 6,228 | 2.5 | $1,307 | $840 | $1,896 | $2,474 |
Costs per year for space heating only. SCOP = seasonal coefficient of performance: units of heat delivered per unit of electricity over the whole winter.
How the calculator works
1. Heating need
From your home's size: heat loss of 0.32 / 0.24 / 0.16 BTU per hour, square foot and °F (drafty / average / well insulated) × 24 hours × heating degree days (base 65 °F) at your location. From your fuel use: fuel × energy content × the old system's efficiency. The second way is more accurate, because it already contains your home's real insulation and your thermostat habits.
2. Heat pump efficiency month by month
A heat pump moves more heat per kWh in mild weather than in cold weather. We take the coefficient of performance (COP) at 47 °F and 5 °F for each class of heat pump, interpolate it at each month's average temperature and at 10 °F below it (cold nights), subtract about 10% for defrost cycles between 17 °F and 45 °F, and weight each month by its share of heating degree days. The COP never drops below 1, because below that the backup resistance heater takes over.
3. Cost
Heat pump: heating need ÷ 3,412 BTU per kWh ÷ seasonal COP × your electricity price. Furnace: heating need ÷ fuel energy content (100,000 BTU per therm of gas, 91,452 per gallon of propane, 138,500 per gallon of heating oil) ÷ furnace efficiency × fuel price.
Full details and sources: methodology.
Frequently asked questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace?
It depends on the ratio of your electricity price to your gas price and on your winter. Where electricity is cheap and gas expensive (the Southeast, the Pacific Northwest) a heat pump usually wins clearly. Where electricity is expensive and gas cheap (New England, California, parts of the Midwest), a heat pump can cost about the same or more to run, even though it uses far less energy. Against propane, heating oil and electric baseboard, a heat pump almost always saves money.
Do heat pumps work in cold climates?
Cold-climate heat pumps keep a COP around 2 at 5 °F and keep heating well below 0 °F. In Minnesota-type winters the seasonal COP of a good cold-climate unit is typically 2.3–2.8 in field measurements. Older standard heat pumps lose capacity faster and lean more on backup resistance heat.
Is there still a federal tax credit for heat pumps in 2026?
The federal Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (25C), which covered 30% up to $2,000 for heat pumps, ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025. Many state, utility and local rebate programs continue. Check your utility and your state energy office before you buy.